Tuesday 2 October 2012

The MULAYAM'S game plan

Ms. Mamta Banerjee's  act of leaving the UPA political ground was thought to be catastrophic by many. But, to the dismay of Ms. Banerjee and other oppositions, a third hand was ready to help out the government from the "No-Trust Motion" to be passed in the parliament. The third hand was none other than the game changer Mulayam Singh Yadav.
It was not the first time that UPA was supported by him, but we had seen it earlier in the Presidential Election too when Mulayam changed his plan overnight from Mr. APJ Kalam to  Mr. Pranab Mukherjee. During that situation too, Ms. Banerjee was on the loosing side.
So far so good...
The question which is not exactly clear is: why Mulayam is extending to support to the government even though it is a true fact that "The sooner the election , better the opportunity for SP to increase their seats in Delhi".  The answer cannot be anywhere near Ms. Banerjee because SP is not going to be affected anyway by the TMC. Thinking that the BJP should not form the party from SP'S point of view is not justifiable because we cannot ignore the fact that BJP in no circumstances is going to win elections (if it happens now). BJP is not strong enough to form party at this moment because of their lack of leadership and the internal mis-understandings among the party members. The relation between Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar are well known to all and their race for the post of PM.
The SP's answer to it that they do not want to give chance to any non-secular party to comew to the centre seems to somewhat bizarre looking at the present situation. Then lets look at the exact reasons.
 Certainly SP has the required no.'s to save the government. Hence, it can get benefits and make the work done by putting pressure on the government and at the same time supporting it from outside. It seems to be double plan of Mulayam.
Also, if Mulayam withdraws support and the government somehow fails to topple, it will be a crucial loss to SP as well as UP. This is because of the financial problem of UP. The SP in that case may lose the Central assistance which will be fatal for the cash-strapped Akhilesh Government.
SP on the other hand, by putting pressure and carrying out rallies can earn the favour of other Third Front parties and also the people.
Hence, it is better for him to extend his support to the government for whatever time they can and wait for the right time to come.
The extra time may also provide SP an opportunity to make its base strong enough so that it can make itself fully prepared for the 2014 elections. Even it does not make too much impact, it might remain a part of the UPA govt. (it hardly matters they win or lose). If the UPA wins the elections, it will be even better for the SP to bargain for some cabinet positions (I am expecting that if the UPA wins, it will be in coalition with the SP).
Lets wait and watch each and every step very carefully particularly of the SP. 2014 election is not too far away.
There will be more to watch the new party of Arvind Kejriwal who will announce its party's name on 26th November. More and more competition. Hope that 2014 election might be an important election for INDIA and many changes can be expected.
Reference: The Hindu 26th sep. 

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